This is an excerpt from my latest newsletter.
About the only good news these days is that the election is FINALLY over. In my Fearless Forecast edition back in January I said “I believe President Obama will defeat Mitt Romney in a relatively close election as a divided GOP is unable to coalesce behind Romney. The Tea Party is marginalized and the Senate remains in Republican control. Fiscal austerity, job creation and tax policy are the main debate points.” I’d say I nailed that one right on the head. Now, Obama and the lame duck Congress MUST figure out a way to avoid pushing this country over the “fiscal cliff”. Should every possible tax increase and spending cut go through, the 4-5% reduction in GDP would push the United States into a deep recession. But I believe that the self-preservation instincts of our politicians won’t allow that to actually happen. Somehow they will figure out how to avoid the cliff. It’s likely that they’ll compromise on some easy tax increase wins and entitlement cuts then push the harder decisions into next year to let the next Congress fight it out. And the sooner they do this, the better for the stock market, which hates uncertainty.
At the end of the day, I don’t think the results of the election will change things very much. We still have a left-leaning president with no real mandate and a divided Congress with a weakened Tea Party. That’s a great prescription for more of the same where there’s lots of talk and very little real action. I think the best we can hope for, in the short run, is some modest compromise and lots of procrastination. Looking longer term, I truly hope the President looks to his legacy and makes a real effort to articulate a tax and spending policy that makes sense. If he does, the Republicans will be forced to the table and maybe a plan that can save us from becoming Greece and Spain can be shaped. Or not.
What is really sad is how little confidence I, and so many people I talk to, have that our leaders will really work together to shape an intelligent policy that will hurt everyone a little in the short run but help us all in the long run. There will have to be tax increases. There will have to be spending cuts. There will have to be reductions in entitlement programs. Many good programs will have to be cut back or eliminated. People will lose their jobs, especially those in the government.
Unfortunately, standing in the way of what must be done are the special interests and the lobbyists, the ones with the real money and power. These groups have too strong a voice in what happens in this country. It really is no longer about “we the people”; it’s “we with influence”. Maybe someone in Washington will show some courage and leadership and prove me wrong and do what’s right, even if it isn’t what’s popular. I hope so, but I’m not hopeful.